Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

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Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby arkie » Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:42 pm

RNZ wrote:Harsher gun laws considered to tackle gang violence
Police Minister Judith Collins said she would consider measures - including firearm prohibition orders - later this week to combat gangs.
In 2014, police and justice ministry staff were asked to advise the Cabinet on options to prevent high-risk gang offenders from possessing or obtaining guns.

In New South Wales, police are able to stop and search a person issued with an order - and can search their houses and vehicles without a warrant.
Officials briefed the then-Police and Justice Ministers in April last year about options for this country, with one option being to follow the Australian laws.

They said there were a number of people who posed a "significant risk of committing violent offences with firearms" and evidence suggested firearms offending was a particular problem "for, though not limited to, members of gangs".

...

Another expert on gangs, University of Canterbury lecturer and researcher Jarrod Gilbert, also questioned the accuracy of the figures.
Dr Gilbert said while it was important to keep guns away from criminals, he suspected the gang data was off the mark.

"The basis of these laws are that 44 percent of current gang members have firearms offences - now that intuitively seems very high to me.
"And I've got reason to question those figures of course, because the last time the government used gang data I proved that they were wildly, wildly inaccurate", Mr Gilbert said. He also said gangs were firing far fewer bullets than they were in the '80s.

"This will be heralded as gang legislation, as so many laws have been in the past, but then we'll find that gangs won't be mentioned in any of the drafting of the laws so of course they'll be able to use [them] against anybody.

"If they're like any other gang laws that have been produced in this country, they will be used against people not in gangs far more commonly than they are against gang members."

Mr Gilbert said, while there was good intent behind the considerations, the government needed to ensure it backed policy with sound data.


What d'you think? I'm not pro-gun or anything, but I'm also not anti-gun necessarily either. Seems to me we already have a firearms license system, gun violence is down, seems okay to me. What else would you do? Registering all firearms seems like the only improvement I can think of.

Meanwhile, this policy idea seems a bit like another step towards a police state, or am I overreacting.

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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby 9seconds » Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:19 am

hunters?
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby FC » Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:10 am

They shoot each other accidently more than they shoot other people not in hunting situations, but I think you'll find they dont often accidently shoot other hunters either. I've met fucking idiots from all walks of life, doesnt mean they should ban their pastime.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby FC » Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:57 am

J wrote:Who needs a gun in nz? :explainittomelikeimfive:


Come on Jay, let's not get into this "I didn't say exactly that, how do you know what I (quite clearly) insinuated?"
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby FC » Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:44 am

Probably not more, because we already have loads. Certainly not auto/semi auto or handguns.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby dustbinflowers » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:07 pm

[quote="J"]i suggested noone in nz actually needs a gun, which is true. [quote]

It would really suck trying to euthanize 100 stranded pilot whales without a gun. Just saying.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby akaxo » Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:25 pm

could be target practice for the army?
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby PertHJ » Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:25 pm

It doesn't seem like these laws would do much in the way of reducing someones ability to obtain a gun when/if they had a use for one, only increases police powers to search people....?
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby arkie » Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:49 am

PertHJ wrote:It doesn't seem like these laws would do much in the way of reducing someones ability to obtain a gun when/if they had a use for one, only increases police powers to search people....?


Yeah that's my main concern Pert, especially seeing as it's being mooted as a way of 'keeping us safe from the big bad gang members'. It was a side point about gun legislation, but it is something that a lot of people have pretty strong opinion on, I was keen to see what punkas thought.

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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby Red_switch » Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:54 am

I think J is being pretty damn naive.

And yeah, just seems like more use of dodgy stats to introduce more invasive laws/powers. Doesn't really sound like an improvement in gun control per se.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby Red_switch » Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:49 am

Yeah, no one needs a gun.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby . » Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:32 am

there are two issues being confounded here.

regulation of guns is a good thing and it's either naive or manipulative to muddle regulation with the notion of an outright ban.

OF COURSE there are legitimate reasons for gun ownership. but using an example like euthanising 100 stranded pilot whales. jfc. i mean i get it - you do work that that requires a gun. noone wants to take away your ability to euthanise stranded whales!! but way to read what is *obvious* hyperbole with a strict, unwavering literal interpretation and completely miss the intent of what he means.

jay is right: most people don't need guns. regulate the shit out of them i say. the last thing we need is to move towards how shit is in the states.

however, in saying all that - i also agree that this particular instance doesn't sound like effective gun regulation at all. simply increasing the police powers for warrantless searching is dangerous. that's the direction the whole world is moving in though, i guess :(
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby Dead Kid » Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:07 pm

dustbinflowers wrote:It would really suck trying to euthanize 100 stranded pilot whales without a gun. Just saying.

Except perhaps if you had a samurai sword. Although neither swords nor guns are mentioned here:
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby Max » Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:51 pm

The major difference between us and the USA is not so much regulatory as cultural. Our gun culture centres around hunting and sport - it's not all that hard to get guns as long as you pass a police check and you're not a psycho. Same in most of the world. American gun culture, uniquely, centres around self-defence. In American culture, shooting someone who strays on to your property is totally legitimate - back in 1992 a Japanese exchange student in Louisiana was killed when he turned up at the wrong address for a halloween party, and the owner was acquitted. This would not happen anywhere else in the world.

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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby . » Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:10 pm

the american gun culture that you (accurately) describe comes from the deification of their constitution.

but cultural differences between the states and elsewhere in the world are not at all a good point to raise in defense of loosening gun regulation in the rest of the world. in fact that's entirely arse about face.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby PertHJ » Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:48 pm

. wrote:there are two issues being confounded here.

regulation of guns is a good thing and it's either naive or manipulative to muddle regulation with the notion of an outright ban.

OF COURSE there are legitimate reasons for gun ownership. but using an example like euthanising 100 stranded pilot whales. jfc. i mean i get it - you do work that that requires a gun. noone wants to take away your ability to euthanise stranded whales!! but way to read what is *obvious* hyperbole with a strict, unwavering literal interpretation and completely miss the intent of what he means.

jay is right: most people don't need guns. regulate the shit out of them i say. the last thing we need is to move towards how shit is in the states.

however, in saying all that - i also agree that this particular instance doesn't sound like effective gun regulation at all. simply increasing the police powers for warrantless searching is dangerous. that's the direction the whole world is moving in though, i guess :(


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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby Max » Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:37 pm

. wrote:the american gun culture that you (accurately) describe comes from the deification of their constitution.

but cultural differences between the states and elsewhere in the world are not at all a good point to raise in defense of loosening gun regulation in the rest of the world. in fact that's entirely arse about face.


Wasn't raising it in "defense" of anything or even expressing any particular opinion. I agree that our current gun laws are about right and the scaremongering is an excuse to increase police powers.

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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby General Mutante » Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:58 am

Yep, and middle NZ will swallow it hook line and sinker because they'll suddenly be shitting themselves over all the gun violence we don't have because by and large they are incapable of understanding even the most primitive logic.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby . » Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:11 am

Actually gun violence was up heaps in NZ last year. Obviously still nothing compared to the States but a wrong direction!
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby 9seconds » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:28 pm

dustbinflowers wrote:
J wrote:i suggested noone in nz actually needs a gun, which is true.

It would really suck trying to euthanize 100 stranded pilot whales without a gun. Just saying.

and impossible to effectively control tahr and the plethora of other large mammals loose in our natural environment.

many hunters hunt for food, and are a lot more aware of idiots who cant practice target identification than you will ever be Jay, you really sound just prejudiced and ignorant.
there are many, many examples where a firearm would be necessary that you would not think of, but these are, like the majority of guns in nz, hunting rifles and shotguns, handguns and military style weapons are already strictly controlled as they should be.

our gun laws are actually pretty good, if anything should be done to improve them it is firearm tracking like in most other countries, this is practiced and encouraged here, but is not law.
these powers the police are currently grasping for are unnecessary and do not seem to have even the intention of controlling the amount of illegal firearms in nz, laws making all guns illegal if unregistered would improve that, but would only target illegal gun owners, these powers target everyone.

i didnt think Jay, that you would support a law like that.

also, as its related, the police should not carry side arms, they have proven they cannot be trusted with the guns they already have.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby 9seconds » Sun Feb 14, 2016 3:16 pm

its like saying nobody needs computers, or cars, technically its true, but is an utterly impractical opinion, furthermore, in this context 'nobody needs guns' implies support of an outright ban, im not sure what else you could have meant by it, unless it was collins' search laws of course.

obviously i dont think you would really support that sort of thing, but but exhibiting that kind of prejudice against hunters is hardly conducive of rational debate, i dont like gun toting yahoos who take booze up into the bush and shoot at anything that moves either, but unless you think all environmentalist have to be 9th level vegans youre writing off thousands of people working to protect NZs greatest national asset.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby 9seconds » Sun Feb 14, 2016 3:20 pm

p.s. i also dont like trophy hunters, to me they are out there for the wrong reasons, it doesnt mean they are irresponsible dicks tho, i just dont think much of them.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby 9seconds » Sun Feb 14, 2016 5:03 pm

J wrote:personally i have never met a 'social' hunter who does it out of concern for conservation, although ive met quite a few who just like knowing that they have killed something. ive lived mostly in cities, but i don't doubt they exist.

i know i havnt seen ya in years, but im a bit hurt you would say we've never met.
are hunters who are concerned with nature the majority of people who head out to shoot stuff? maybe they are, you would be able to answer that better than me and id be happy to believe it.

most hunters care about the environment, tho they dont go anywhere near far enough, im interested in eradication of pest species, the 'hunting' fraternity are more about managing target species like deer and pigs, they are often actually against environmentalists due to the use of 1080, but many, many people such as myself, are employed to at least controll pest species.
im not sure barry crump and the hundreds of deer cullers in the 50's and 60's would have got much work done without the use of a firearm, theres many cullers in NZ who would be mystified how else they would do it.

but nobody really needs a pistol or an SMG, but then as i said earlier, those things are already strictly controlled and as a consequence, very rare.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby 9seconds » Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:15 pm

well they are the majority of recreational hunters, but theres a lot who care.
plenty of people not connected to any environmental group give a fuck, but as usual the idiots have the loudest voices.

personally i dont like killing things much at all, and ive found most trappers and hunters are highly concerned with making it as quick and painless as possible, but yes, some people just like killing.

anyway, all good, sorry to infer you would condone collins in any of her endeavors save jumping off a tall building.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby FC » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:41 am

I'd rather cause as little pain and suffering as possible, but I'd be lying if I said you don't get a wee bit of a rush blowing a possums head off.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby . » Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:56 am

9seconds wrote:i also dont like trophy hunters...it doesnt mean they are irresponsible dicks tho


yes, it pretty much does mean exactly that.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby Max » Mon Feb 15, 2016 3:44 pm

I'm not sure that we should really give a fuck whether or not hunters give a fuck. In the New Zealand context at least, they are a net positive for the environment regardless of their motivations.

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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby Red_switch » Mon Feb 15, 2016 4:47 pm

Some hunters are. Others aren't. There is a lot of "management" of what are really pest species in NZ to "maintain game stocks" and placate the hunting lobby. Then there's the fuckwits that deliberately liberate animals (mostly pigs, but also deer and goats in places, and occasionally cattle... apparently wild bulls are a real "thrill") on both public/conservation lands, as well as on private land that isn't theirs. There are forests in southland now that are basically considered unsafe for workers to operate in with the scale of poaching and fuckwittery going on.

Some of the shit I saw in my time with dealing with these issues blew my mind. When it comes to hunting on private land in Otago and Southland a few dedicated fuckwits have well and truly ruined things for everyone else that might be interested in popping out for a shot (not me).

There are also a few hunters camps that are getting out of hand. Not to mention the close calls that occur with fuckwits with guns around popular tracks and huts.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby dustbinflowers » Mon Feb 15, 2016 8:07 pm

I think laws and regulations are not going to prevent people who want to do stuff to other people from getting guns. There are an awful lot of unregistered firearms out there, and unlicenced people with them.

I know quite a few people who shoot recreationally to manage pest animals. I think it can be a social thing too? An example is farmers in Central Otago inviting locals to come and have a weekend rabbit shoot and bbq. It gets done as control when the rabbit levels get too high, a community thing and sometimes a fundraiser for the local school.

That's only the impression I get though, I've never been to one, not my thing at all.
Last edited by dustbinflowers on Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dodgy stats underpin another subtle step towards a police state

Postby PertHJ » Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:10 pm

J wrote:right so we shouldn't care that people only want guns so that they can blow the heads off things to satisfy their own cravings. and we are ok with those sort of people obtaining gun licenses legitimately, because 'hunters'.

and that basis is being used to counter my argument that people dont need guns.

and there is no connection between that kind of shitty gun/hunt culture and gun crime or the availability of guns into the hands of people that probably shouldn't have them.

got it.


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